Thanks for reading our inaugural forecast on Florida Weather Update! Currently across the state, showers and thunderstorms are present offshore of Volusia County, and heavy showers and storms in southern Collier County. Showers and storms are also starting to enter the western panhandle.
All of the activity is moving towards the east.
An upper-level shortwave trough of low pressure is currently over the Midwest with an associated surface low and cold front stretched across the south. This is expected to keep moving towards the west and start impacting the weather in the state overnight.
Some high-resolution guidance models are hinting at rain continuing to pour in on and off in a) the panhandle and b) South Florida. Keep in mind: Guidance models are not always correct, but I would say they are on to something. The surface low that’s currently near Tennessee (based on surface obs) will move to the northeast and push the front further south. This cold front will help initiate showers and storms starting at the panhandle and move west through the morning.
Further south, an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico (see current satellite image below) is helping to bring in showers and storms. I expect this stream of moisture and rain to keep its pace through the night and tomorrow. Expect plenty of rain, possibly heavy at times, will be socking most of the state. Rain chances will a little lower further north and east. Conditions should begin to clear in the western panhandle Friday evening.
Lows tonight will be primarily in the low 70s in North Florida and mid 70s in central and southern Florida. It could get into the upper 60s in some spots in the Florida panhandle Friday morning.
Highs will mainly be in the mid to upper 80s in the peninsula as rain and cloudcover will help keep temperatures low, but it could reach the 90 mark in the western panhandle as skies should start to clear as the rain passes.