Current satellite and water vapor loops show a well-defined area of disturbed weather across southern Florida. Surface analysis from the NHC shows a high pressure cell out in the western Atlantic with a tropical wave near the southeastern coast of Florida. This trough is ushering in showers and thunderstorms with plenty of gusty winds. There have been reports across southeast Florida and the Keys of winds with gusts as much as 60 mph.
This wave has lost some of its luster in the last few radar scans, but there is still some stronger storms further north in Hardee, DeSoto, and Highlands counties. The strongest activity could make its way to coastal east central Florida. There are already two severe thunderstorm warnings in effect for the central Florida area.
Some of these heavy storms – notable in Hardee and DeSoto counties – will make their way west central Florida, notably towards the Bradenton area.
The NHC has given this tropical wave a 10 percent chance of development during the next 48 hours. Upper level winds seem only marginally favorable for further development according to the NHC, but the upper level winds at the moment – based on my analysis – are not that bad. There is some vorticity seen at 500 mb, but little near the surface. Water temps, as usual in the Gulf this time of the year, are like bath water. The extra things that would help sustain and intensify the wave is divergence aloft and the wave moving away from land. The system will just have to be watched.
Rain chances will remain across south and central Florida today. Rain chances remain high Monday for most of the peninsula.