Posted in July 2012 …

Jul 22 2012
Tropical, Update

Tropical Disturbance Brings Rain Today

Current satellite and water vapor loops show a well-defined area of disturbed weather across southern Florida. Surface analysis from the NHC shows a high pressure cell out in the western Atlantic with a tropical wave near the southeastern coast of Florida. This trough is ushering in showers and thunderstorms with plenty of gusty winds. There have been reports across southeast Florida and the Keys of winds with gusts as much as 60 mph.

(Source: NOAA)

This wave has lost some of its luster in the last few radar scans, but there is still some stronger storms further north in Hardee, DeSoto, and Highlands counties. The strongest activity could make its way to coastal east central Florida. There are already two severe thunderstorm warnings in effect for the central Florida area.

Some of these heavy storms – notable in Hardee and DeSoto counties – will make their way west central Florida, notably towards the Bradenton area.

The NHC has given this tropical wave a 10 percent chance of development during the next 48 hours. Upper level winds seem only marginally favorable for further development according to the NHC, but the upper level winds at the moment – based on my analysis – are not that bad. There is some vorticity seen at 500 mb, but little near the surface. Water temps, as usual in the Gulf this time of the year, are like bath water. The extra things that would help sustain and intensify the wave is divergence aloft and the wave moving away from land. The system will just have to be watched.

Rain chances will remain across south and central Florida today. Rain chances remain high Monday for most of the peninsula.

Jul 18 2012
Forecast

Rain Chances Remain Good for Northern Tier

Currently, there are showers with a few thunderstorms over west central Florida this morning, moving in from the Gulf of Mexico. They are affecting areas just west of Ocala southward to near Tampa. The heaviest rain is to the west of Tampa, and is heading towards that area.

Nearly the same song-and-dance will remain today as Tuesday. The high pressure cell out the east in the Atlantic will begin to pull a little more north and east.  The general flow will be more out of the southwest and still supply plenty of moisture at the surface. The precipitable water values will be higher in north Florida, but still above the 1.5-inch mark across the state. In other words: It’s pretty moist. The upper-level low is showing signs of weakening based on the NAM and GFS guidance model runs, but it will still be enough to help support showers and storms. Rain chances will be higher for the northern two-thirds of the state today.

Panhandle and north Florida: Partly to mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and storms. Highs in the lower 90s.

Central Florida: Mostly cloudy in the west, partly cloudy in the east becoming mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and storms. Highs around 90.

South Florida: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower or storm. Highs around 90.

Jul 17 2012
Forecast

Rainy Once Again Today

Currently across the state, showers are beginning to develop over portions of Sumter, Hernando, Pasco, Lake, and Citrus counties. Shower activity is also developing near Melbourne and north of Lake Okeechobee.

A weak upper-level low – which can be seen on model outputs and on water vapor imagery – is expected to influence the Florida weather today. This feature will keep temps cool aloft and bring a little more instability to the area. This upper low is helping to cause areas of “spin” (to keep it simple) aloft to help initiate showers and storms. At the surface, a high remains out in the western Atlantic, which is helping to continue the southerly flow across the state. The atmosphere will remain very moist across the state. Any daytime heating will help initiate instability near the surface and help form storms.

The primary threat will be heavy rain and frequent lighting. There could be a chance of a severe storm or two. There was one report of hail in Marion County on Monday, according to the Storm Prediction Center storm reports page. A trained spotter reported quarter-sized hail 11 miles southwest of Ocala.

Panhandle: Mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and storms. Highs in the lower 90s.

North and Central Peninsula: Mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and storms. Highs around 90, with some spots in the lower 90s.

South Florida: Partly to mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and storms. Highs around 90.

 

Jul 16 2012
Forecast

Good Rain Chances Remain Monday

Currently this evening, a batch of moderate to heavy rain is hovering over the coastal communities of Palm Beach and Broward counties. Expect this batch to persist across the area for a while as I expect the area of showers and storms to die off through the night. A Special Marine Warning continues for offshore waters…

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1126 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
  COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL
  JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
  WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM
  JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM

* UNTIL 1230 AM EDT

* AT 1122 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OF 34
  KNOTS OR GREATER... FROM 8 NM EAST OF PALM BEACH TO 16 NM EAST OF  
  TRIUMPH REEF...MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS.

There is a very weak mid- to upper-level low off the coast of Georgia, being seen on the GFS and NAM guidance outputs. But a high is centered in the western Atlantic directly east of Florida. The upper trough will also move towards the west and help cool temps aloft. With the destabilization and southerly flow expected Monday, the setup will help bring good rain chances across the state. The start of the workweek will be a wet one as it has been today. Rain chances will be at 50-60 percent for most of the peninsula with mostly cloudy skies throughout the day.

Panhandle: Partly cloudy in the west to mostly cloudy in the west with a chance of showers and storms (better chances in the east). Highs near 90 to the lower 90s west.

Peninsula: Mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and storms. Rain can be heavy at times. Highs around 90.

With the rain sitting around southeast Florida tonight and high rain chances Monday for the same area, I would keep an eye out for localized flooding.

Jul 12 2012
Uncategorized

High Rain Chances Today

Currently, there are showers and storms making their way ashore in Volusia County – from Daytona Beach southward to Edgewater. Light to moderate showers are also present in northern Lake and far eastern Volusia counties.

Heavy showers and thunderstorms are also present in and around Miami metro. These storms will affect northeast Miami-Dade as they move northeasterly. There’s also a heavy cell southwest of Weston. An outflow boundary ahead of the activity in southern Broward is and will likely keep triggering convection as it moves northeast. Those in Broward should expect the possibility of showers and storms later.

The high pressure system in the Atlantic has shifted north and the axis is no longer located over Florida. Instead, we have more of a east to southeasterly flow in north Florida while a southeasterly flow near the surface is being seen in southern Florida. This southerly flow will continue to bring plenty of moisture and instability for showers and storms through sea breezes and outflow boundaries from other storms. This morning’s soundings (weather balloons) from across the state show a very moist atmosphere.

Because of the rain, temperatures should be moderated a bit with highs hanging around 90, except for parts of north Florida (Tallahassee, Madison, and vicinity) could see lower 90s.

Some of these storms can produce plenty of lightning and heavy rain.

Jul 10 2012
Forecast

Rain Chances Increasing Today

Currently, the state is fairly calm with the exception of the Florida Keys and offshore waters. Satellite and radar imagery is showing a cluster of heavy rain across the Keys.

The weather pattern today and the next couple of days begin to lead to higher rain chances across the state. The general flow is expected to become more southerly and help pull in more moisture to the state. Plenty of daytime heating will also allow more instability and better chances of convective development. Because of the ridge axis still remaining over the state, the east coast seabreeze should be dominant and begin to move inland and trigger showers and storms. The latest state-level WRF guidance model is hinting at activity beginning to fire up after 2 pm EDT across the panhandle.

Severe weather threat remains remote, but I would not rule out one rogue severe storm. The main threat will be frequent lightning and heavy rainfall – the typical Florida summer afternoon storm. All activity should begin to die down after dusk.

Panhandle: Partly cloudy with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.

North Florida: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 90s.

Central Florida: Partly cloudy with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.

South Florida: Partly cloudy with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances higher in the Keys. Highs in the lower 90s (mid to upper 80s in the Keys).

Jul 08 2012
Update

East Coast Sea Breeze Already Triggering Storms

At this hour, visible satellite imagery is already showing the east coast sea breeze developing and triggering showers and storms over southeast Florida.

(Source: NOAA)

The Miami radar is showing storms slowly moving westward across areas including Coral Springs, Davie, Miami Lakes, and Doral.

On the east central Florida coast and points north, the sea breeze has not quite begun yet. Storm development in this area is being capped at the moment. I would not rule out showers and storms later this afternoon and into the evening as the sea breeze moves inland.

Temps are mainly in the lower 90s except where the sea breeze has already pushed by in southwest Florida (where we are getting 89 to 90).

Jul 08 2012
Forecast

Same Song and Dance for Sunday

Currently in Florida, the radars are not picking up any precip this evening. Satellite imagery is showing some cloudcover over northern Florida near Lake City, but that’s about it. Area temps are mostly in the upper 70s with a few lower 80s, especially along the coasts.

The state will once again be under the influence of a surface high with the ridge axis centered over central Florida. A weak high in the mid levels over the Carolinas will help keep rain chances from getting too high (mainly for northern Florida). Still, showers and storms can not be rulled out. Convection should be mainly inland as sea breezes will help initiate storms. Melbourne NWS’ Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model hints at inland showers and storms for Sunday. It will be the typical Florida summer day with highs in the 90s and dewpoints around the 70 mark.

The rip current threat should remain weak as winds are not expected to be very strong at the beaches.

Panhandle: Partly cloudy with a slim chance of a shower or storm. Highs in the lower 90s along the coast to the mid 90s inland.

North Florida: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms (the best inland). Highs in the mid 90s (low 90s along coast).

Central Florida: Partly cloudy with a chance of a showers and storms (best inland). Highs in the low 90s along the coasts with mid 90s inland.

South Florida: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms (best inland). Highs in the low 90s along the coasts, mid 90s inland.

 

Jul 06 2012
Forecast, Update

Slight Rain Chances Saturday, but Hot

Currently across the state, there are a few isolated showers – some near Tampa Bay – but the rest of Florida is in the clear. However, radar is picking up showers and storms just offshore of Key Biscayne and moving towards southeastern Miami-Dade County (see below). Satellite imagery shows some low cloudcover in parts of the state. Temperatures are mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Florida will be under the influence of a high pressure ridge with the axis of the high over central Florida on Saturday. The ride will help keep rain chances in the 30 to 40 percent range. The ability for thunderstorm development looks good at the surface, but warmer air aloft and subsidence from the high may tamper things down a bit. But I would not rule out showers and storms entirely. It’ll feel like a typical Florida day with temps in the 90s and dewpoints mainly in the 70s.

Panhandle: Partly cloudy tonight with lows in the mid 70s. Partly cloudy Saturday with a chance of a shower or storm. Highs near 90 along the coast, mid 90s inland.

North Florida: Partly cloudy tonight with lows in the lower 70s. Partly cloudy Saturday with a chance of showers and storms. Highs in the lower 90s.

Central Florida: Partly cloudy tonight with lows in the mid 70s. Partly cloudy Saturday with a chance of showers and storms. Highs in the lower 90s. Temps could hit the mid 90s inland.

South Florida: Partly cloudy tonight with lows in the mid 70s. Partly cloudy Saturday with a chance of showers and storms. Highs near 90s along the coast to lower 90s inland.

Jul 03 2012
Update

Late Morning Update

Currently, the radars across the state are clear with satellite imagery with cloudcover over Dixie and Levy counties. Temperatures are mainly in the upper 80s.

Source: NOAA

A surface trough of low pressure is sitting across the Carolinas while Florida is under the influence of high pressure. Still, there will be enough instability this afternoon to stir up showers and thunderstorms this afternoon – mainly over inland areas and the inland panhandle. Temps will be pretty hot today with temps mainly in the low to mid 90s.

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