The last few days have been pretty wet across southern Florida. Today, flood advisories have been in effect for portions of southeastern Florida were some areas have seen (via Doppler estimates) over 3-4 inches of rain since Friday. The NWS in Miami tweeted a spotter report that 5.42 inches of rain that has fallen in Pembroke Pines today.
Deep tropical moisture (precipitable water amounts >2 inches in South Florida, dewpoints in the 70s) remains, along with boundary interactions, have helped storms fire up this afternoon.
As the week begins, there are a few things of note that will increase rain chances. The NWS in Miami released a tweet that gives a clue as to what’s to come…
The reason? Some guidance models are hinting at a tropical disturbance developing in the Gulf of Mexico early to mid next week. For instance, the American GFS operational model is trying to develop a 1006-mb low in the gulf Tuesday into Wednesday (see below). However, the GFS eventually “splits” the low. A few ensemble members are trying to spawn a low.
The operational Canadian model is the most aggressive so far (999-mb low hitting Tampa Bay), but I am considering that an outlier for the moment. A few Canadian ensemble members want to develop something, too. The ECMWF is similar to the GFS in strength. The point? A tropical disturbance may have some impact on the State of Florida later in the coming week. Wind shear may be slightly on the high side for the next few days, and sea surface temps off the west coast of Florida are below normal. The chances of this disturbance developing into something serious are slim.
The biggest threat I see from the disturbance at this time is mostly rain – heavy rain. A trough should also move through the eastern U.S. as the ridge out in the Atlantic will shift east. This will also help bring in more moisture into the state.
There are some places in Florida that could use the additional rainfall, such as the panhandle and the western peninsula of Florida. But places like Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties don’t need the extra rain, as per the Keetch Byram Drought Index (shown below).
Source: Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services
The WPC is calling for up to 10 inches of rain in parts of South Florida through next Saturday, while the central panhandle might get an inch or so of rain (see below).
It’s important to be prepared and know what to do when flooding occurs. If you are driving, do not drive your car into flooded roads – turn around, don’t drown. If there are evacuation orders from local emergency management, please heed them. Stay tuned to us on our social media outlets, local media, and the National Weather Service for the latest. We’ll keep an eye on the possible development of the low in the Gulf of Mexico.