Forecast for Friday: It will be another hot one on Friday with temperatures in the 90s across the state (except 80s in the Keys). Heat indices will be in the upper 90s to near 100 in some spots in the panhandle. If you have to be outdoors, take it easy and stay hydrated.
Rain chances will be the highest in the northern peninsula, eastern panhandle, and southeastern Florida. Rain chances will be 20 percent or less elsewhere.
Thursday Forecast: A mid to upper-level trough passing through will bring some drier air aloft, but warm and moist lower levels will still aid in the slight chance of strong thunderstorms during the afternoon. Rain chances will be a bit higher in South Florida, but drier further north.
In South Florida, highs will be in the lower 90s (upper 80s near the coast), low 90s in central and northern Florida peninsula, and mid to upper 90s in the inland panhandle (low 90s along the coast). Northern Florida and the panhandle could see heat indices in the upper 90s to the low 100s!
This afternoon, reconnaissance aircraft determined that the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico contained a closed center of circulation with winds near 35 knots (~ 40 mph). It was then declared Tropical Storm Andrea by the National Hurricane Center in Miami. As of the 10 pm EDT intermediate advisory, Andrea was located 270 miles southwest of Tampa. The sustained winds are at 40 mph – with higher gusts – and a minimum central pressure of 1002 mb. Andrea is moving north at 6 mph.
Source: NHC
Projected Path: The model consensus for exact landfall seems to be the Florida Big bend – anywhere between Apalachicola and Cedar Key. A trough in the mid to upper levels is expected to move east across the eastern United States (see GFS model run for Thursday afternoon below), which will help steer Andrea more to northeast and accelerate her movement.
Source: WeatherBell
Projected Strength: Since sea surface temperatures off the western Florida coast are a couple of degrees below average, wind shear to the north is somewhat high, and the projected amount of time over is relatively short, I doubt that Andrea will strengthen much. Her wind speed may increase slightly, but I doubt that it would be higher than what the NHC is predicting (45 mph). The HWRF is calling for max wind of 51 knots Thursday afternoon, but is not that likely.
Landfall Timing: The NHC is calling for Andrea to make landfall Thursday night. Most of the models seem to be on the same page with the pace of Andrea’s movement.
Wind Threat: Tropical Storm force winds are mainly on the eastern and southeastern side of Andrea up to 140 miles from the center of circulation. As the storm approaches the state, winds of tropical storm force may start impacting areas from the Tampa Bay area northward through the Big Bend in the late afternoon or early evening. Winds from 40 to 45 mph are possible, with some higher gusts in some of the rain bands. Winds will continue to increase during the night.
Flooding Threat: Flooding is the biggest risk with this storm. Flood watches are in effect from the central panhandle – including Panama City and Tallahassee – southward through Tampa Bay. Cumulative precip amounts of up to 5 inches are possible through Friday night (see below). Flooding of creeks, rivers, urbanized, and low-lying areas is possible.
Source: WPC/WeatherBell
Tornado Threat: With any landfalling tropical cyclone, there is a risk of tornado development – mainly on the eastern side of the tropical system. These tornadoes can occur well ahead of landfall. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has given a low risk of tornado development tonight for the southwestern Florida coast and the Keys. On Thursday, decent destabilization near the surface along with good turning of the wind with height will allow the opportunity of a few tornadoes to develop. The SPC has placed West Central Florida under a slight risk of severe weather (see below). Helicity (0-1 km) values greater than 200 m^2/s^2 (based on the latest RAP guidance run) for tomorrow afternoon would help some thunderstorms have enough spin to develop some supercells. Any breaks in the cloudcover would allow greater instability to help develop thunderstorms with decent updrafts. Be aware of tornadoes as these can develop really quickly.
Source: SPC
Stay tuned to our blog and social networks, as well as your local NWS office, emergency management, and local media for the latest on Tropical Storm Andrea. The next full update will be sometime Thursday.
It will be a close carbon copy of today. The tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico – which the NHC is giving a 40 percent chance of development – will continue to slowly move north, and bring moisture and rain to the peninsula. Rain chances will start to creep up in the central panhandle – including Tallahassee.
Skies will continue to be mostly cloudy during the day. Rain chances in the peninsula will be in the 60-70 percent range, 60 percent in the central panhandle, and 40-50 percent in the western panhandle. Highs will only reach the upper 80s in the inland panhandle, northern and central peninsula. Coastal areas and southern Florida will likely be in the lower to mid 80s. Rain amounts could reach up to an inch in some spots through Thursday morning (see WPC rainfall predictions below).
Source: WeatherBell
Rain chances will be as high as 60 percent for South Florida and in the 50-percent range in the interior peninsula. Deep moisture and sea breeze boundaries will help initiate scattered showers and thunderstorms. With the high amount of rain received today in places like South Florida and Tampa Bay, flooding will continue to be a concern. Highs will be in the 90s inland, with upper 80s along the coast.
The panhandle will be drier with rain chances only in the 20-40 percent range.
The last few days have been pretty wet across southern Florida. Today, flood advisories have been in effect for portions of southeastern Florida were some areas have seen (via Doppler estimates) over 3-4 inches of rain since Friday. The NWS in Miami tweeted a spotter report that 5.42 inches of rain that has fallen in Pembroke Pines today.
Deep tropical moisture (precipitable water amounts >2 inches in South Florida, dewpoints in the 70s) remains, along with boundary interactions, have helped storms fire up this afternoon.
As the week begins, there are a few things of note that will increase rain chances. The NWS in Miami released a tweet that gives a clue as to what’s to come…
Widespread 7-10″ of rain is forecast for South FL next 7 days,locally much higher amounts possible. Stay tuned. #flwx twitter.com/NWSMiami/statu…
— NWS Miami (@NWSMiami) June 1, 2013
The reason? Some guidance models are hinting at a tropical disturbance developing in the Gulf of Mexico early to mid next week. For instance, the American GFS operational model is trying to develop a 1006-mb low in the gulf Tuesday into Wednesday (see below). However, the GFS eventually “splits” the low. A few ensemble members are trying to spawn a low.
Source: WeatherBell
The operational Canadian model is the most aggressive so far (999-mb low hitting Tampa Bay), but I am considering that an outlier for the moment. A few Canadian ensemble members want to develop something, too. The ECMWF is similar to the GFS in strength. The point? A tropical disturbance may have some impact on the State of Florida later in the coming week. Wind shear may be slightly on the high side for the next few days, and sea surface temps off the west coast of Florida are below normal. The chances of this disturbance developing into something serious are slim.
The biggest threat I see from the disturbance at this time is mostly rain – heavy rain. A trough should also move through the eastern U.S. as the ridge out in the Atlantic will shift east. This will also help bring in more moisture into the state.
There are some places in Florida that could use the additional rainfall, such as the panhandle and the western peninsula of Florida. But places like Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties don’t need the extra rain, as per the Keetch Byram Drought Index (shown below).
Source: Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services
The WPC is calling for up to 10 inches of rain in parts of South Florida through next Saturday, while the central panhandle might get an inch or so of rain (see below).
Source: WeatherBell
It’s important to be prepared and know what to do when flooding occurs. If you are driving, do not drive your car into flooded roads – turn around, don’t drown. If there are evacuation orders from local emergency management, please heed them. Stay tuned to us on our social media outlets, local media, and the National Weather Service for the latest. We’ll keep an eye on the possible development of the low in the Gulf of Mexico.
Cloud cover will be lingering around the panhandle and especially South Florida today. The guidance models are hinting at a inverted surface trough over the Bahamas later in the afternoon, which will interfere with the deep tropical moisture that is over South Florida and slightly temper the risk of thunderstorms. Expect scattered storms to continue for the east coast in the morning hours, some heavy at times. Dry air will be making it’s way south though; therefore, this will lower the chances for heavy downpours in the afternoon. Potential hazards for South Florida will be flooding. A flood watch will remain in effect until Friday morning for southeast Florida and a high risk of rip currents until Friday morning as well for the east coast. Locally heavy amounts of rain are possible in the deeper in south Florida. Rain chances look low for central and the panhandle of Florida today.
Highs for today across the state will mostly be in the 80s with a few spots in central Florida rising to the lower 90s. Lows will be in the mid to upper 70s across South Florida and in the lower 70s for the panhandle, with lows in the 80s in the Keys. Clouds will linger into the night hours for south Florida, but expect the rain chances to decrease. For the panhandle and Central Florida it will continue to look drier.
It’s been a rainy day for South Florida – especially the Keys. So far today, some parts of the Keys have seen up to 3 inches of rain based on doppler radar estimates. Key West recorded 1.61 inches of rain today (through 4 PM EDT). The rain has been in response to a weak mid-level feature hanging around the Bahamas and South Florida, and will remain for at least the next day or so. This feature, along with a great influx of moisture, is helping to increase rain coverage across the area.
Forecast Conditions: Rain chances will be high (~ 70 percent) across South Florida and the Keys tomorrow as the feature will likely hang around. Rainfall will likely be the greatest in the Keys with amounts between 1-2 inches possible. Rain chances will drop to 20-30 percent as you head towards Central Florida. Skies will be partly cloudy in the north and central part of the state, but mostly cloudy in the south.
Temps: Highs will be near 90 in the inland panhandle, inland peninsula, and the western peninsula. Highs will be in the mid 80s in the coastal panhandle and the eastern coast, with lower 80s possible in South Florida.
Other hazards: The easterly to southeasterly flow will still continue; therefore, the high rip current risk will remain for the east coast.
I hope you all have had a great Memorial Day. On Tuesday, moisture will continue creeping back into the state as the high remains in the Atlantic and brings a southeasterly flow across the state (see below). The southeasterly flow will help bring more moisture to the state and feel a little more humid than the last few days.
Forecast surface map for Tuesday afternoon. (Source: WeatherBell)
Rain chances will start to creep back up in South Florida and Tampa Bay, but rain chances will be near 50 percent in South Florida. The risk of rain and storms will be higher in the Keys. Skies will be partly cloudy in the central and northern parts of the state, with more cloudcover in South Florida. High temperatures will remain in the mid 80s along the east coast and the coastal panhandle, with high temps approaching 90 within the inland and western peninsula.
Rip currents will once again remain at a high risk across the east coast of Florida. If you are going to head out to the beach, always swim near a lifeguard and swim parallel to shore if you are caught in a rip current.
The weekend has been fairly nice with sunny skies for most of the state this weekend, with temperatures slightly below normal and drier air. The exception has been South Florida today where light showers have been moving onshore this afternoon and evening.
Memorial Day looks to be more of the same, but some guidance models are beginning to show higher precipitable water across the southern portion of the state starting late Monday. Rain chances will likely be the highest across southern Florida on Monday (30 percent at best), but lower as you travel north. Skies are expected to be mostly sunny (more clouds in South Florida) with temperatures in the upper 80s for the inland and western peninsula, and panhandle with a few spots hitting 90 degrees. South Florida will be a little cooler – especially on the southeast coast. The easterly flow will still persist, so highs on the east coast will be in the mid 80s.
The rip current risk remains high on the east coast Monday as the strong easterly flow persists. If you are going to head out to the beach, always swim near a lifeguard and swim parallel to shore if you are caught in a rip current.
Have a great Memorial Day!