Florida Weather Update

Sorry for the lack of updates as I have not been feeling well. I hope to be completely back up to speed in a day or two.

For tomorrow, the same pattern will likely exist. The high in the eastern Atlantic will continue to bring a mainly southeasterly flow across the state, continuing to bring moisture into the state. Also, a upper-level disturbance will help initiate rain and storms. Just like what happened today in South Florida, rain can be heavy at times. The highest rain chances (~50 percent) will be inland with the boundary collisions, while rain chances will be a little lower over the panhandle.

Highs will primarily be in the upper 80s, with some low to mid 80s along the coastal panhandle and east coast peninsula.

In case you haven’t heard, Florida could see some of its coldest temperatures of the season this weekend. Temperatures could hit the hit the freezing mark down to Central Florida and be just plain cold for those in South Florida.

At the upper levels, a deep trough is expected to dig into the southeastern U.S. during the day tomorrow. This will help cause some uplift and bring a chance of a shower across parts of the state, but the chances will be higher in West Central Florida. Despite some chatter online a few days ago, I seriously doubt that snowfall will occur anywhere in the state as it will be too warm at the surface and aloft and lack of sufficient moisture forecasted in the snow growth region. I give the chance of winter precip near 0 percent. But the trough will help usher in some colder air across the southeast.

Northerly flow and cloudy skies with a chance of showers will be the story for Saturday. Winds will be gusty and will make it feel much colder than it already is.

For Saturday night, the temperatures will begin to fall after sunset, but not quickly since cloudcover will likely hang around until after midnight. Guidance models are hinting at cloudcover sticking around South Florida for most of the night, which will help keep temps a little warmer.

The skies will start to clear out on Sunday. Winds could still be gusty out of the northwest, but maybe a tad lighter than Saturday. It will still feel pretty cold for Florida standards. Highs will be in the 50s in northern Florida, near 60 in Central Florida, and lower 60s in South Florida.

Sunday night into Monday morning will likely be the coldest of the weekend for most areas. The moisture aloft is expected to be out of the area (clearer skies) and the winds will die down a bit to allow for a better radiational cooling environment. Temps could hit the upper 20s across inland portions of the panhandle while urban southeast Florida could see the mid to upper 40s.

Precautions: Those with plants and crops should prepare to take protective measures to lower the risk of damage. Pets should be brought indoors, especially during the night. Pipes that are exposed outside should be wrapped and protected to prevent freezing. Use caution when using space heaters indoors. Ensure that you and your children are well protected from the cold with proper clothing, especially if you are expected to be outside for a long period of time. Because of the higher winds expected tomorrow and Sunday, wind chills – especially near dawn – could be in the mid 20s in northern Florida.

Updated forecast lows will be likely posted tomorrow and Sunday. Stay warm, everyone!

If you have plans to celebrate the new year tonight, the weather across the state is expected to be fairly tranquil. The surface high that has been over the southeast is now offshore, bringing a easterly flow across the state this evening. Temperatures currently range from the upper 40s in the inland panhandle to the mid 70s in metro southeast Florida (see below).

The high is expected to slowly push further east tonight and bring an east and southeasterly flow across the state tonight. Some cloudcover is expected to continue tonight in the panhandle and South Florida, but rain chances in these areas are roughly 10 percent or less. Elsewhere, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected. Tonight, lows are expected to be in the upper 40s in north Florida, to the mid 60s in the metro areas in southeast Florida.

  2013 Plans 

You may have noticed that posts on this blog have been very infrequent. Since our stats have indicated that our readership was very low during normal forecast posting, we have since only posted on the blog when greater weather events threaten the state and require more explanation. This new trend will likely continue, but we will continue posting brief forecasts on our social networks (Twitter, Facebook, and Google+).

As for our Spanish-speaking audience, we would like to revive posting updates and warnings en Español but focus such posts to areas where the highest concentration of that audience is located. Those areas will be Central and South Florida – which include Orlando, Tampa Bay, and Miami-Ft. Lauderdale.

If you have any suggestions for the blog and social networks, we would like to hear them. You can email me at charles(at)flawxupdate.com.

Have a great new year!

Though Hurricane Sandy looks to remain out in the Atlantic near the Bahamas, Florida will not be unscathed.

As of the 11 am EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Sandy was located 85 miles south-southeast of Great Exuma Island in the eastern Bahamas (Google map). The max sustained winds are at 105 mph, with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure is at 964 mb. Sandy continues to ride due north at 16 mph.

Sandy made landfall late last night as a weak category 3 hurricane near Santiago de Cuba. Twitter reports via The Miami Herald and The Washington Post state that the area was “devastated” with at least one fatality. The hurricane has lost a little luster as the storm crossed over the eastern part of Cuba, but there is a chance of slow regeneration before it becomes extratropical (loses its tropical characteristics).

Currently, the Miami radar is showing plenty of showers offshore of southeast Florida, moving towards the coast (see radar image below). Within and hour or so, places from Palm Beach County south to Miami-Dade County will see rain with some tropical storm gusts along the coast. There are tropical storm watches and warnings for the east coast and Lake Okeechobee (from the NHC)…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

The following impacts are possible today from Sandy:

- Gusty winds, mainly along the coast, that could hit tropical storm force (39 mph or greater).

- Rip currents along the coast. It’s just best to stay out of the water. Minor beach flooding is also possible.

- Heavy rain (on-and-off through today) from the rain bands.

Tonight and tomorrow, the gusts will increase and the sustained winds will increase as Sandy arrives in the Bahamas. The rain bands from Sandy will impact the southeast and east-central coasts. Inland, winds are not expected to be tropical storm force, but can be gusty.

The guidance models and the NHC official forecast have the storm moving north and still have the storm offshore Saturday. The coastal impacts will likely continue. There is a slight concern about the Florida and Georgia football game in Jacksonville. Any shift in the storm track to the west may increase the chances of impacts from Sandy (and the opposite if the storm goes more east).  It may be breezy with a chance of showers for Jacksonville-metro on Saturday, but we’ll see what happens with the track.

Keep tabs on our social networks – Twitter, Facebook, Google+ – for the latest information. I will write another post if necessary.

Tropical Depression 9 has been reclassified as Tropical Storm Isaac this evening by the National Hurricane Center. Hurricane Hunters found 44-knot (50.6-mph) winds at flight level just to the northeast of the center of circulation, according to the NHC’s 5 PM discussion. Satellite estimates also had the surface wind at nearly 35 knots (40.3 mph). The minimum central pressure was at 1005 mb as it moved westward at nearly 17 mph.

Source: NOAA

Isaac’s circulation looks good on the last visible satellite loops available. Convection looked pretty good earlier, but has seemed to die down and now looks a little less organized in the last few frames on the infrared satellite loop. The water vapor loop shows drier air ahead of and to the north of the TS, but dry air doesn’t seem to be intruding as much as it was last night. The GFS has shear to the northeast of Isaac in about 24 hours, so the shear Isaac has been experiencing should die slightly down over time.

Isaac will move into the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday and move west and west-northwest away from the islands on Thursday. What happens after nearing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, and affecting Hispaniola and possibly Cuba? Well, there’s been a lot of hype on social media on that.

For the last day or so, the GFS (and its ensembles) have been eyeing The Sunshine State. The European model was leaning with the GFS last night. Today, more models are pointing towards the state. Now, does it make the forecast etched in stone? Absolutely not. The media have been flooding social networks with headlines along the lines of “storm will hit Florida.” Even some have been saying it will impact Tampa and possibly affect the Republican National Convention. Let’s keep in mind that these are guidance models, hence the word “guidance.” Meteorologists use models to help determine a forecast, not solely base their forecasts off of them. There are many factors that could change this forecast and I will briefly discuss a few…

- The latest model runs likely don’t have the Hurricane Hunter data ingested yet. The big problem with tropical systems is that surface and upper-air data are scarse. This leaves little data to be plugged into the models and help create accurate forecasts. We’ll see if the forecast tracks change in a couple of runs.

- Any rapid changes in intensity, slow intensity increase, or even if the storm’s intensity stagnant, this could alter a forecast. If a tropical cyclone (TC) is weak, then the storm will be directed more by low-level flow. If the TC is very potent, then the storm will be directed more by upper-level patterns.

- Strength is also dependent on where it goes. If Isaac goes over the island of Hispaniola, for instance, the mountainous terrain could weaken it. Even if it still makes a b-line for Florida, it might not be as strong as some models are hinting at.

- The storm is roughly six days away. I have seen models for TCs remain consistant on a track and then everything flips on its head in the end.

I am not downplaying the risk of Isaac at all – it needs to be watched carefully. But having the media and even a few meteorologists hype it up and already calling the shots six days out is, in my opinion, irresponsible.

Everyone from the Carolinas to the gulf coast should check in periodically for the latest info on Isaac.

11 PM EDT Update: Tropical Storm warnings are in effect for Puerto Rico, the US and British Virgin Islands. The governor of Puerto Rico has already declared a state of emergency for the island.

The rain that has been slamming the northern tier of The “Sunshine” State has prompted flooding concerns. Flood watches have been posted for parts of the panhandle and the Big Bend. A flood warning was issued for the Santa Fe River at Fort White (details).

Why has it been such a mess? A stationary front has been, well, stationary across the southeast. The tropical disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico is also helping to bring in additional moisture northeast along the front (as seen on the water vapor image below). This is the same disturbance that the NHC is watching for possible development (30 percent chance).

Source: NOAA

This pattern is expected to continue on Tuesday. This will exacerbate flooding concerns across most of the panhandle and northern Florida. Rain chances should start to drop a bit by mid week. For now, caution is urged when traveling across northern Florida (turn around, don’t drown).

The southern portion of the state will be drier and warmer with highs around 90 and rain chances around 40 percent.

Currently, there are showers and storms making their way ashore in Volusia County – from Daytona Beach southward to Edgewater. Light to moderate showers are also present in northern Lake and far eastern Volusia counties.

Heavy showers and thunderstorms are also present in and around Miami metro. These storms will affect northeast Miami-Dade as they move northeasterly. There’s also a heavy cell southwest of Weston. An outflow boundary ahead of the activity in southern Broward is and will likely keep triggering convection as it moves northeast. Those in Broward should expect the possibility of showers and storms later.

The high pressure system in the Atlantic has shifted north and the axis is no longer located over Florida. Instead, we have more of a east to southeasterly flow in north Florida while a southeasterly flow near the surface is being seen in southern Florida. This southerly flow will continue to bring plenty of moisture and instability for showers and storms through sea breezes and outflow boundaries from other storms. This morning’s soundings (weather balloons) from across the state show a very moist atmosphere.

Because of the rain, temperatures should be moderated a bit with highs hanging around 90, except for parts of north Florida (Tallahassee, Madison, and vicinity) could see lower 90s.

Some of these storms can produce plenty of lightning and heavy rain.